“I’m not predicting a crash, I’m just saying the risk reward of going early (Fed raising rates) is better than going late.”

– Stan Druckenmiller

I spent 45 minutes this morning watching the Bloomberg interview with Stan Druckenmiller. I had a number of other things to share with you today, gathered over the course of the week, but they have been moved to the backseat. Put Drunkenmiller’s comments in the important category. Often gruff, I enjoy his clear and candid way.

Outperforming Warren Buffett and most everyone else, Stan’s track record is reported to be 30% per year for 30 years (with never a down year). Let’s just say we should be interested in what he has to say.

I share my notes from the interview below but I encourage you to find some down time, grab a coffee, and watch the first 40 minutes of the interview. Additionally, you’ll see that the interview references a private presentation Stan made in January at a Ken Langone (Home Depot founder and frequent CNBC guest) sponsored event. Someone recorded the presentation and titled it “The Speech at the Lost Tree Club”. It is worth the read. You’ll find the link below.

You and I are in a tough business. It is based on probabilities and involves imperfection. The mismatch between customer expectations and practical reality is challenging. Art Cashin said, “That to survive 50 years in this business, you learn that the first thing you do when you enter a room is look for the exit sign.” It is with this thinking, along with Drunkenmiller’s material, that I also share a great (short) piece on investing and risk from Ned Davis. Another grateful nod to NDR for allowing me to share it with you.

I hope you find the material helpful.

Read the rest of the report…


Steve Blumenthal

Founder & CEO CMG


Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG in 1992. He is CEO, Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager at Capital Management Group, Inc. where he manages equity and tactical investment portfolios. He is a frequent speaker and writer on investment strategies and has been featured in various media sources including the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Pensions & Investments Magazine, Investment News, RIA Biz and Smart Money. He has been a guest on CNBC, Wall Street Journal Live, and Bloomberg. Mr. Blumenthal is a frequent speaker at industry conferences (NAPFA, IMCA, Index Universe, Opal Financial Group Indexing & ETF Summit and NAAIM) and is author of CMG’s popular investment research commentary. With 30 years of investment management and industry experience, prior to founding CMG, Mr. Blumenthal worked for Merrill Lynch Institutional, Merrill Lynch Retail and Prudential Securities.

Mr. Blumenthal graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting from Pennsylvania State University. He is married, has three children and is active in his community coaching youth soccer.