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February Edition: The Roadmap For 2024 | Bears Carried Out On a Stretcher | Don’t Sell in May This Year | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | Fed-Induced Volatility to Continue | Bulls In Control, But… | Meta Millions | Fed Looking to Stick the Landing

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

The Roadmap for 2024

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 2.2.24

The drivers to the current market action are fairly straightforward and the bottom line is investors need some clarity on these topics before making major committments. So while we wait, I thought it might be a good idea to take a look at what the historical cycles look like for the rest of the coming year…

Continue Reading…

Bears Carried Out On a Stretcher

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 2.5.24

The Goldilocks economy that so many predicted for 2024 seems to be a bit hotter right now. In other words, no soft landing and certainly no hard landing. In fact, right now, no landing at all. I am sorry for those who don’t own the winning stocks. It must be frustrating…

Continue Reading…

Don’t Sell in May This Year

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 1.26.24

On our monthly webinar in January, I shared a chart of how each Election Year has played out – all the way back to 1928. There were 25 election years in that period! What stood out to me is an unusual pattern: the market tends to “chop” sideways for the first 6 months before having a solid, early-summer rally. This is the opposite to the “Sell in May and Go Away” mantra…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Factors Board , which is designed to identify the state of the key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.


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Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Fed-Induced Volatility to Continue

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 2.5.24

While it is highly anticipated that the Fed will start reducing
rates this year, the exact timing is anything but certain. This
has created some volatility in the bond markets as the steady
decline in the US 10-Year Treasury Yield Index at the end of
last year has become more volatile. Rates started moving up
in early January but fell sharply towards the end of the
month. I suspect this increase in volatility will remain until
the Fed clarifies the timing of their interest rate reductions…

Continue Reading…

Bulls In Control, But…

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 1.2.24

The stock market is in a strong bullish environment. Short-term the market is extended and nearing the upper end of its uptrending channel which is an area where it has pulled back in the past. Market breadth has deteriorated over the past month which is an additional factor that suggests we could see a minor short-term correction in stocks in the near term…

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Meta Millions

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 2.2.24

We remain bullish and still believe pullbacks should be bought. Blowout earnings by Meta (META) and Amazon.com (AMZN) on Thursday injected the market with some much-needed support. The two are up 22% and 8% respectively for the week and have once again illustrated how instrumental the Magnificent Seven have been in maintaining this bull market run…

Continue Reading…

Fed Looking to Stick the Landing

By: Asher Rogovy, Magnifina

Published: 1.15.24

The long-expected recession still hasn’t arrived. The potential for weakness has caught the Federal Reserve’s attention, however. In their December statement, the Fed indicated that they are anticipating 3 interest rate cuts toward the end of 2024. While the economy may remain healthy today, it’s worth remembering that rate cuts occur in response to an economic slowdown. A “soft landing” is the term given to a situation where the Fed manages to avoid a recession by acting right on time. These are rare, and the previous one occurred in 1995. The Fed is commonly perceived to react too late both to inflation and recession.

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The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

January 2024 Edition: Making It Official | Not All Rainbows and Unicorns | What A Year It Was | The Primary Cycle Board Says… | Breakout! | Breadth Thrust Signal | Return of the Seven

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

Making It Official

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 1.22.24

It took a while (as in over 500 days), but the S&P 500 and DJIA finally managed to close at fresh all-time highs on Friday. While the bears may argue that the so-called “breakout” must prove itself in the coming days/weeks (Martin Pring was famous for suggesting an additional 3% was needed as confirmation of key breakouts), analysts who study the history of these things suggest a new bull market is now officially underway.

Continue Reading…

Not All Rainbows and Unicorns

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 1.22.24

The markets start the week at all-time highs. Let that sink in for a while. While the bears have doubled and tripled down this year with the nonsensical, BUT BUT BUTs, the bulls have gone about their business after the brief pullback. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are all seeing blue skies right now. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 still have some work to do although I do believe the former will see all-time highs later this year. Lest you think everything is rainbows and unicorns, let me be clear; it’s not….

Continue Reading…

What A Year It Was

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 12.29.23

We’re now looking at the end of 2023 and wow, what a year it was. Until the last couple of months, so much of the market had just gone nowhere. But the November run up (which was seasonally expected) and the continued run up in December (not as seasonally expected) gave the laggards a chance to catch up. And they absolutely have! But what’s next? We think it would have been more ideal to have at least some sort of pull-back in the market in early December to set us up for a rally into the year-end. Seasonality suggests…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Board , which is designed to identify the state of the primary cycle of the stock market.


View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Further To Go

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 1.22.24

Over the past week the S&P 500 Index (large-cap stocks) remained confined to the trading range that I identified in last week’s note until Friday, when it surged through the top of the range (R1). Moving sideways for a period of time is a healthy way for the market to digest the strong gains during the last two months of 2023 and the upside breakout on Friday was an early indication that the uptrend in the S&P 500 Index has further to go…

Continue Reading…

Breadth Thrust!

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 1.2.24

When the broader stock market makes a strong move lower and subsequently advances strongly within a short period, it is called a breadth thrust. This strong move higher runs counter to the previous weaker counter trend moves higher and signals the start of a new bull market. Numerous breadth indicators can measure this phenomenon. The most popular is the Breadth Thrust Indicator (see chart below) which is commonly known as the Zweig Breadth Indicator. This indicator is based on the percentage of advancing stocks on the NYSE…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Return of the Seven

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 1.19.24

The last two weeks of earnings have been dominated by both the big and regional banks. The results have been mixed at
best and nothing coming out of earnings has led to any real sustainable moves in the markets. The big story so far in 2024
has been the renewed dominance of the large cap tech companies. For 2023, the magnificent 7 dominated returns for the
vast majority of the year. That only began to shift in October. We may be seeing the early signs of that dominance resuming
again in early 2024…

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

December 2023 Edition: Words Matter | But Paul, What About… | Getting Back in the Game | State of the Trend | The Fed is Done | Bullish Breakout | The Dynamic Allocation Model | Is GDI Telling the True Economic Story? | Sideways is the New Down | The NAAIM Exposure Index

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

The Words Matter

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 12.6.23

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Pullbacks in the markets end quickly when some Fed official, or better yet, a couple FOMC members say something “dovish.” You know, something like, “We see signs of progress on inflation.” Or “Policy is appropriate given the current data.” Or, well, anything including the words “rates” and “cuts” in the same paragraph. Almost instantly, the computers of Wall Street’s high speed trading crowd start buying in response. Never mind the fact that…

Continue Reading…

But Paul, What About…

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 12.4.23

For most of the year, all we heard about was that 7 or 8 stocks were the only ones going up while 493 languished. That’s not exactly true, but you get the picture. Additionally, I consistently pushed back that if you know the market was being dominated by a handful of stocks, no one was preventing you from owning some. Bears didn’t like that argument….

Continue Reading…

Getting Back In The Game

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 11.24.23

But now, seasonality suggests that while November is a solidly positive month (and so far, so good), the first days of December can tend to be the start of a small pull-back before getting into the “Santa Clause Rally” season – which includes the days following Christmas, not leading up to them as so many clueless pundits are saying. To add another layer of complexity, we are in the 3rd year of the Election Cycle. Based on data …

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Trend Board , which is designed to tell us about the overall technical health of the market’s trend.


View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

The Fed is Done

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 12.4.23

It is widely expected that the Fed is done with the current
cycle of interest rate hikes and many believe they will start
decreasing rates by the middle of next year. This has led to a
sharp decline in interest rates across the yield curve over the
past month and a surge in bond prices. The RGB Treasury
Bond Index is surging higher as bond yields and bond prices
move in opposite directions…

Continue Reading…

Bullish Breakout

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 11.27.23

After reaching overbought levels and pulling back from August through October, the market has decisively broken out to the upside. The strength of the move suggests that the path of least resistance over the coming weeks and months is higher. That being said, the market is short-term overbought, and the S&P 500 Index is sitting right at major resistance. Thus, the market may pull back/consolidate before making another run higher. Any short-term market weakness should be viewed as a buying opportunity…

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Is GDI Telling True Economic Story?

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 12.1.23

Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is another measure of economic output. Usually, GDP and GDI approximate each other. However, for the third quarter, GDI rose at an annualized 1.5% rate. Over the last year, GDI has fallen .16% versus a gain in GDP of 3%. Something is amiss. Over the coming months, these numbers should converge. The question is whether GDP falls or GDI rises. The answer to that question will likely show whether or not we are heading towards a recession or not…

Continue Reading…

Sideways Is The New Down

By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund

Published: 12.4.23

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have been consolidating gains and trading sideways, which is far better than a price drop! This healthy price action on low volume tells me that sellers are happy holders and buyers are eager to buy. The inflation, deficit, and border crisis headline news is bad, but the chart trendlines show us a different picture. The major indexes and leading stocks are in bull market uptrends, so I choose to focus on that…

Continue Reading

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

October 2023 Edition: Time For A Rally? | Bulls Have The Edge | Seasonality Strikes Again! | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | A Weak Environment | Big Move Coming! | NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model | Failure is Concerning | Time To Manage Risk!

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

Time For A Rally?

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 10.2.23

Perhaps one of the most important qualities necessary to survive long-term in this business is an open mind. As I’ve lamented a time or two hundred over the years, too many investors are focused on making market predictions and/or about “being right.” Yet, as more than forty years of professional investing experience has taught me, this game is really all about “getting it right”…

Continue Reading…

Bulls Have The Edge

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 10.2.23

Friday ended the week, month and quarter. And it was definitely a tale of two halves, much like Q1 with early strength and later weakness. And you already know that both time and have price have opened the window for a stock market bottom. If all goes according to plan, the low we see should create an opportunity for a rally into January and it could be significant…

Continue Reading…

Seasonality Strikes Again!

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 9.29.23

It should be no surprise that September has been a weak month across most of the stock market, as historically it has the highest probability of any month to see losses. And this year is no different. However, what this does do is set up the market for a good rally into the end of the year…

Continue Reading…

The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Early Warning Board , which is designed to suggest when the market may be ripe for a reversal on a short-term basis.


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Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

A Weak Environment

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 10.2.23

The stock market environment is weak and being impacted by a number of factors including higher interest rates,
anticipated changes to monetary policy, and the overall health of the economy. The potential for a government shutdown
weighed on the markets last week. However, that crisis was averted with a last-minute deal over the weekend but the
positive news has not provided the market much support…

Continue Reading…

Big Move Coming!

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 9.4.23

In our August 7, 2023 Market Update, Stock Market Weakness Likely, I mentioned the market was at the top of its uptrending channel and was likely to correct to the lower half of that channel. Here we are two months later and the S&P 500 is sitting on the trendline that defines the lower end of that channel. I believe we are about to see a strong move in one direction or the other. If it is down, watch out below…

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Failure is Concerning

By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 9.29.23

With the market oversold, we expected some sort of rally this past week and we have gotten a small one. The failure of the market, to this point, to mount a more serious counter-trend rally is concerning. We’ll see if next week provides a little more strength. The S&P tested support at 4240 before bouncing back up to resistance today at the 4300 area. It is struggling to get above that level. Stay cautious. ..

Continue Reading…

Time To Manage Risk!

By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund

Published: 10.2.23

Interest rates and risk have risen, and more stocks were sold as our sell-stops were triggered. The market has not been rewarding stock investors, and junk bonds are trading well below their 50-day moving average, indicating a lack of investor appetite for risk. I believe there are times to be invested and there are times to sit patiently. I have learned that market corrections have always presented incredible opportunities after the sellers capitulate and buyers step up. The selling will likely continue until a significant event causes a market bottom, but we are not there yet…

Continue Reading

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

September 2023 Edition: Stocks Sticking to the Script | Bulls Not Convincing, Yet | Taking a Break | Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | Waiting on Additional Information | Good News: Momentum Still Positive | Cloudy With a Chance of Sunshine | On the 50!

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

2023 Sticking to the Script

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 9.8.23

After enjoying a strong run higher from mid-March through the end of July, the bulls took a much deserved and highly anticipated break. And in following the seasonal script, the major indices proceeded to pull back in August. Although it wasn’t fun, the decline was definitely to be expected. The good news is that unless the bears are firmly in control at the corner of Broad and Wall, these annoying pullback phases eventually run their course. Oftentimes like clockwork…

Continue Reading…

Bulls Not Convincing, Yet

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 9.11.23

Stocks are in the midst of what I think will end up being a feeble bounce. Sure, I could be grossly wrong and the final bottom is in for 2023 and the bulls are off to the races again. I don’t think that is going to happen, but it’s possible. Rather, I still believe there is one more decline coming and it’s right in front of us. If stocks exceed the September highs in the coming few weeks, then I will be wrong and need to pivot quickly and accordingly…

Continue Reading…

Taking a Break

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 8.25.23

As August began, it wasn’t much of a surprise to see the market start to pull back a bit from its over-stretched and over-bought conditions. The stock market can only run up (or down) like that for so long before it needs to take a break. It often reverts back to an average price of the past month (or 21-day moving average), and that is what we saw play out over the past few weeks.
And let’s not forget that seasonality is a relevant factor to keep in mind…

Continue Reading…

The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Board , which is designed to identify the primary trend of the overall “state of the stock market.”


View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Waiting on Additional Information

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 9.11.23

It appears that the market is digesting its recent gains and waiting for additional data on inflation, corporate earnings and
interest rate policy. These are likely to be the primary drivers of the stock market through the end of the year…

Continue Reading…

Good News: Momentum Still Positive

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 9.4.23

As long as price continues to advance within the recent uptrending channel, market conditions are positive from a price perspective. The August move to the middle/lower end of the channel combined with a positive move higher in momentum suggests that odds favor higher stock prices in the near term…

Continue Reading…

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Cloudy With a Chance of Sunshine

By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 9.8.23

September’s negative reputation has proven true to this point with all of the major indices down for the week. The declines
have been modest thus far, but we still have much of the month to get through. With earnings season past, the market will
turn most of its attention to economic reports and the perceived effects those reports might have on Fed policy. Next week we
will get another round of CPI and PPI reports to get a gauge on where inflation is headed next…

Continue Reading…

On the 50!

By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund

Published: 9.11.23

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes are trading near their respective 50-day moving averages (DMA), so the uptrend has flat-lined. My conviction level is low, so I do not plan to invest more in growth stocks until the market changes character and starts rewarding risk. Risk is the only thing we can attempt to control. The market decides everything else, and we are ready to get “all in” when the charts say so…

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The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

August 2023 Edition: I’m A Bull But Summer Storms May Be Brewing | Staying Seated on Bull Train | Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | Leaving The Door Open | Is Technology Getting Tired? | NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model | If You Can’t Beat ‘Em, Join ‘Em! | Resistance and Earnings Ahead | NAAIM Member Exposure Index

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

Thunderstorms Brewing?

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 7.31.23

I have been unequivocally bullish for 9 months. I don’t know many people who have been as positive as I have been, certainly no one who stuck their neck out while in the abyss to call for an end of the bear market and a new bull market. I know. I know. What have I done for you lately? While I am absolutely not calling for the end of the bull market or even a full-fledged correction of 10%+, I do think whatever weakness is coming by year-end is right in front of us. Summer brings thunderstorms, so…

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Staying Seated on Bull Train

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 3.31.23

Our Shadowridge Long-Term Trend indicator remains positive and supports the current run up we’re seeing in the major indexes. It could be stretched at this point, but at the moment, money flow supports the positive moves we’ve been seeing over the past couple of months. Our Mid-Term Cycle signal has been positive since the end of June. But unlike the spikes in money flows we saw in January and March; the June and July data has been much more subdued. But it has also been weakening over the past several days…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Indicator Board , which is designed to identify the state of the the stock market’s “Primary Cycle”


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Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Leaving The Door Open

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 7.31.23

As widely expected, the Fed raised short-term interest rates last week by 0.25% and left the door open for potentially more rate hikes in the future depending on incoming inflation data. The S&P 500 Index continued to trend up on the news and reached a new 52-week high on Friday…

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Is Technology Getting Tired?

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 7.24.23

One of the hallmarks of a bull market is sector rotation. I am sending out this update because we are starting to see the early signs of money moving out of technology, which has led this year’s market rally, and into lagging sectors/industry groups. Looking at a weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100 we find that last week’s candle is called a shooting star, a loss of momentum candle that suggests a possible change in trend…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

If You Can’t Beat ‘Em, Join ‘Em!

By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 7.28.23

Many, if not most, investors missed the gains early in 2023. Those investors are now trying to play catch up to recapture their losses from 2022. Interestingly, despite the gains of 2023, all of the major indices remain well below early 2022 levels. The Dow, Nasdaq, S&P and Russell 2000 remain down -3%, -10%, -5% and -13%, respectively, from the beginning of last year. Said another way, buy and hold investors are down over the last 19 months despite the impressive returns this year. That is but one reason why we subscribe to an active management approach. Capturing gains is important, but avoiding losses is just as important if not more so. Those that missed the early 2023 gains are now jumping back in with both feet and are providing impetus for the market rise…

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Resistance and Earnings Ahead

By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund

Published: 7.31.23

Before earnings were released, I sold a few stocks to avoid surprise price drops. I plan to buy more stocks with accelerating earnings and sales with raised analysts’ estimates from proper pivots. The market responded well to big named leading growth stock earnings releases and a 25bps Fed rate hike last week. The markets’ positive reaction to last week’s rate increase gives me more conviction that we are in a new bull market. We have some big stock earnings releases this week, but the market’s resilience will rotate out of the earnings misses and into the new leaders. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) themed stocks still appear to be under institutional accumulation, and that is where I believe most of the money will be made. I am finding great stock opportunities in the technology, medical, and energy sectors…

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The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Paul Schatz, Rob Bernstein, Ryan Redfern, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Dexter Lyons, Craig Thompson, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

June 2023 Edition: Macro Factors Say Side With Bulls | What Will The Bears Say NOW? | New Highs Ahead? | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | Debt Ceiling Is Behind Us | The World Really IS a Better Place | The Fly In The Ointment | NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model | Party Like It’s 1999! | Skipping To A Soft Landing?

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

Macro Factors Say Side With Bulls

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 6.7.23

With the Fed meeting on tap next week it is fairly easy to argue that investors aren’t likely to make major commitments beforehand. So, instead of joining the crowd of prognosticators opining about what the Fed may or may not do, I thought it would be a good idea to spend some time this week looking at the big picture, macro factors…

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What Will The Bears Say NOW?

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 6.5.23

I lost track of all the pundits and people who came into 2023 so negative, so defensive and so beared up. Those constant calls of a bear market, recession, inflation and the Fed gave me great chuckles for five months. And yes, some, many or much of the data pointed to recession coming, but…

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New Highs Ahead?

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 5.26.23

There is a surprising amount of optimism out in the “Active Manager” communities right now, at least for the next few months or even quarters. Both at the CMT Symposium (Chartered Market Technicians) and at NAAIM Uncommon Knowledge (National Association of Active Investment Managers) the general opinion of the market trend was cautiously positive. Sure, there is always the possibility of unforeseen events, but barring that, the market could very well get back to new highs sometime this year…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Board , which is designed to identify the primary trend of the overall “state of the stock market.”


View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Debt Ceiling Is Behind Us

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 6.5.23

With the debt ceiling bill now behind us, investors will likely focus on incoming inflation data, changes to monetary policy and the potential for a recession…

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The World Really IS a Better Place

By: Jim Lee, STRATFI

Published: 6.1.23

The last three years have provided us with one disaster after another. Covid. A flash depression. Inflation. Interest rate hikes. Bank insolvencies. Is it really that bad? Or do we just hear about the bad news? The good news is my favorite market timing sycle flashed a “green light” recently…

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The Fly In The Ointment

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 6.5.23

While a great many technical indicators suggest a positive market outlook, there is a notable concern that hinders a more bullish sentiment…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Party Like It’s 1999!

By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 6.2.23

While the current rally is certainly getting long in the tooth and will correct at some point. The behavior certainly brings back memories of the tech fueled rally in 1999 that led to the collapse in 2000-2003. Will history repeat? Again, our crystal ball is a little cloudy, but history does have a tendency to rhyme, so…

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Skipping To A Soft Landing?

By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund

Published: 6.5.23

The market now believes the Fed may pause/skip the next 25bps rate hike planned for June 14th and then raise rates on July 26th. This Fed skip is now expected to produce an economic soft landing instead of the previously predicted crash landing/recession. The major indexes rallied Friday on above-average volume, which could mean the sideline money market investors are getting back in the game…

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The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

May 2023 Edition: Sell in May and Go Away? | The Fed is Clueless if They… | Long-Term Indicator Change | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | The Line In The Sand | Not As Strong As It Looks | Are The Bears Back in Business? | Now What?

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

Sell In May And Go Away?

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 5.2.23

Don’t look now fans, but the “Sell in May” season is upon us. You likely know that the May through October period is historically weak. But our handy, dandy cycle composite work says this is NOT the year to heed the old Wall Street saw. In fact, history suggests….

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The Fed Clueless If They…

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 5.3.23

Here we go. Another one of those “most important Fed meetings ever” nonsense from the media. “SPECIAL Coverage”. Oh boy. I couldn’t sleep with all that anticipation. From my seat, the Fed is clueless if they…

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Long-Term Indicator Change

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 4.28.23

There are important changes to our both our Shadowridge Long-Term Trend indicator as well as our Mid-Term Cycle Signal, which suggests we should…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Board , which is designed to identify the primary trend of the overall “state of the stock market.”


View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

The Line In The Sand

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 5.1.23

Stocks and bonds are bouncing around near critical breakout levels and this week we will receive additional data on the
overall health of the economy including the Services and Non-Manufacturing PMI, the Fed rate decision and April payroll
numbers. These will all provide additional clues to the state of the economy and what we might expect in the future…

Continue Reading…

Not As Strong As It Looks

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 5.1.23

The Fed is raising rates in hopes of taming inflation by reducing demand. When the Fed eventually reverses course and begins to lower rates, it will be accompanied by a weak economy (probably a recession). Historically, the stock market doesn’t bottom until the Fed is near the end of its easing cycle and the recession is in its later innings. This suggests that the ultimate bottom in the stock market is many months away…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Are The Bears Back in Business?

By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 4.28.23

The stock market started the week decidedly negative as First Republic Bank released earnings on Monday afternoon and revealed a 40% decline in deposits. The sharp decline added fuel to the argument that the regional bank turmoil may not be over. The news spooked an already anxious market and bears stepped in to take control of the early week market action…

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Now What?

By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund

Published: 5.1.23

The S&P 500 Index has rallied into its February high line of resistance off the backs of heavily weighted (the Generals) mega-cap names (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA & META). Now what?

Continue Reading

The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Paul Schatz, Rob Bernstein, Ryan Redfern, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Dexter Lyons, Craig Thompson, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

April 2023 Edition: A Powerful Indicator Just Lit Up | A Trend Worth Noting | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | The Next Worry | Weak Link | The Few Lead The Many | Crosscurrents

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

A Powerful Indicator Just Lit Up

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 4.10.23

Those of you of used to watch Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser may remember the late, great Marty Zweig. He was one of the greats in technical analysis of the stock market and his research is legendary. Last week, a very powerful Zweig indicator called Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered for only the 12th time since 1960…

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A Trend Worth Noting?

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 3.31.23

What I’m finding intriguing is that the market has been changing direction, or at very least its tone, around the 15th of the month. It has done that several times over the past year. I’m not sure if it is something significant or just something to be aware of. It is certainly an interesting data point to note…

Continue Reading…

The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Trend Indicator Board , which is designed to identify the primary trend of the overall “state of the stock market.”


View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

The Next Worry

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 4.10.23

Much of the stock market has stabilized following the banking issues that surfaced last month. While the stock market
environment has improved, we are starting to see more indications that the economy is slowing as a result of the aggressive
rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve over the last year. If the economy slows down enough…

Continue Reading…

Weak Link

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 4.3.23

As long as the S&P 500 continues to trade above its 200-day moving average market conditions are favorable from a price perspective. However, given that the majority of market internals have turned decidedly negative I don’t place a lot of confidence in the market’s ability to continue to trade above…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

The Few Lead The Many

By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 4.7.23

We remain cautious and do believe that any short-term rise in the market will likely be met with selling in the coming weeks. However, there may be a tradeable rally to make money in the interim. The first quarter of 2023 was a good one on paper. However, a look beneath the surface tells another story…

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Crosscurrents

By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund

Published: 3.6.23

The rescue liquidity the Fed created to save the banks is beginning to dry up, and many stocks are starting to show results of rolling over. We were positioned for a continuation of a growth stock up-trend created by another round of Fed balance sheet expansion (QE). However, the market seems to be in “risk off” mode as the Fed unwinds its balance sheet (QT) like it was doing before the Fed’s liquidity injection to prevent more “bank runs.” There is still a lot of “free money” sloshing around supporting the big liquid names with the heaviest weightings in the major indexes. However, many recent leading stocks have come under heavy selling pressure, indicating the stock market may again…

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The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Paul Schatz, Rob Bernstein, Ryan Redfern, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Dexter Lyons, Craig Thompson, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

March 2023 Edition: Bostic Boost | Hating, Disavowing and Fighting the Rally | More Upside Ahead? | The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall | All About the Fed (Still) | Staying Bullish | Watching the 200-Day | Ready to Roll!

NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

Bostic Boost

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 3.6.23

During the month of February, the path of least resistance for both stock and bond prices appeared to be down. Given the macro narrative, this actually made some sense. After all, with the inflation and economic data coming in hotter/better than expected and the Fed pledging to remain “data dependent,” markets had been busy pricing in the necessary adjustments. But a funny thing happened on the way to the market debacle….

Continue Reading…

Hating, Disavowing and Fighting the Rally

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 3.6.23

I wrote recently about the bulls battling back precisely at the time when the bears were about the declare victory. The same thing happened in December as well as last October. While the masses are all disavowing, hating and fighting the rally, it has been a decent run nonetheless, just not the usual blastoff from a bear market bottom. And that’s okay. There remain headwinds…

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More Upside Ahead?

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 2.24.23

There are a couple of ratios that we follow that suggest we could see more up-side in the next few months. Both the Growth to Value stock ratio and the NASDAQ to S&P500 ratios are leaning towards Growth and NASDAQ. Beyond the ratios, Seasonality is worth keeping in mind when thinking about how to invest. This month’s chart will go into more detail, but so far this year, January and February have played out as expected and the next few months are seasonally strong.

Continue Reading…

The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Indicator Board , which is designed to identify the primary trend of the overall “state of the stock market.”


View Larger Image

Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

All About the Fed

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 3.6.23

Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve and their ability to tame inflation without pushing the economy into a
severe recession. It is widely expected that the FOMC will raise rates 0.25% at its next three meetings (March, May and
June). Any deviation from that would likely create additional market volatility. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will share his
outlook on the economy this week and the February payroll numbers are due to be released on Friday. Another strong jobs
report could…

Continue Reading…

Staying Bullish

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 3.5.23

The stock market is still bullish despite February’s pullback. What I wrote in last month’s newsletter still applies: “the market is displaying strength that we have not seen in over a year.” Here is a rundown of the positive developments that have occurred recently…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:


View Larger Image

The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

Watching The 200-Day

By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 3.3.23

For many traders, moving averages play a big part in their trading decisions. Accordingly, breaches (one way or another), in these lines can lead to big moves in either direction. The 200-day moving average is one of the mostly widely watched and significant ones. The S&P’s recent brush with the closely watched line is something to pay attention to as many program trading
algorithms will be triggered on the penetration of this line and would lead to heavy selling pressures…

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Ready to Roll!

By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund

Published: 3.6.23

The market seems to have worked out an oversold condition and may be ready to roll higher. Fed President Bostic said he thinks they can keep interest rate hikes to 25bps versus the 50bps hikes the market anticipated, and the market rallied Thursday and Friday. The S&P 500 tested and held support three times last week at its 200-DMA on above-average volume, signaling institutions actively supported this critical long-term average. The market also held support at its October up-trend line converging near the 200-DMA, so this was a significant level of support that held. The averages are in “rally mode,” and many individual stock leaders are breaking out on big volume…

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