NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Does Fed Really Need To W.I.N.?
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Just about everybody on the planet expects Jay Powell’s Fed to hike the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50%) at the conclusion of this week’s FOMC meeting. Futures predict a 100% chance of such a move and a more than 90% chance of another 50 bp hike at the next meeting in June. But does the Fed really need to “whip inflation now?”…
Lots of Market Worsts
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Horrible Week. Horrible Month. Horrible Year. Lots and lots of “market worsts.” Here’s my take…
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
It has now been one year since the Federal Reserve said Inflation was “Transitory.” How is that working out for them? Currently, the United States is experiencing the highest inflation rate of all developed countries (Bloomberg Data). But this doesn’t come as much of a surprise to us, as we’ve seen the cracks forming in the economy for this same amount of time. And now, the stock markets are finally acting more in line with our expectations….
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Board , which is designed to identify the overall “state of the stock market.”
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Caution Remains Warranted
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
The month of April was not favorable for the stock market. Most of the major equity indices set new interim lows on Friday
and are in either market corrections (declines exceeding 10%) or bear market decilnes (declines esceeding 20%). All the
indices have also moved negative on a one-year time frame. In short, market risk is high and caution is warranted….
Hanging By A Thread
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
The S&P 500 Index is down 13.3% year-to-date and is below both its 50 and 200-day moving averages. On Friday the index lost 3.6% falling marginally below the March low. This support level is widely being watched and is a line in the sand for many investors. A decisive move below this area would have bearish (weak) longer-term implications…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Sell In May Comes Early
By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Thankfully, April has come to an end. Perhaps the sell in May crowd got a little antsy and started early! With such a dismal April, it would not be a surprise to see some modest strength in May before the summer starts and weakness possibly returns. It continues to be a very dangerous market…
Cash is King!
By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund
I believe there are times to go on offense when the market is rewarding risk-takers, and there are times such as now to sit patiently on defense. I also believe that preserving assets and mental capital in a bear market is key to achieving your long-term financial goals. A bull market can hide all sorts of undisciplined trades, whereas a bear market tends to expose investors without an exit strategy…
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Paul Schatz, Rob Bernstein, Ryan Redfern, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Dexter Lyons, Craig Thompson, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model