NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. “Speaks” is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
About That Inflation Problem
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
For those of you keeping score at home, it is the inflation data that has dominated the stock market game of late. While the recent numbers were eye-popping, the market reaction was not. And the narrative around the subject appears to be evenly split between the two teams on the field.
Froth and Greed Are Back
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Right now, the vast majority of stocks on the NYSE are above their long-term and intermediate-term trends, meaning that any and all weakness remains a buying opportunity until proven otherwise. Shorter-term, we are back to some frothy and greedy sentiment readings which have been a hallmark of this 15 month bull market. The infamous “meme” stocks are back in Vogue with AMC leading the way although I do not sense the same euphoria as I did in Q1 when Gamestop started the whole craze to attack the short sellers…
Is Sideways the New Down?
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Since the end of April, the S&P 500 has been in a tight range and as of this writing, it is sitting almost exactly where it was a month ago. However, there are several factors that are looking more positive than we’ve seen in a while – and it seems possible we could get another move up from here. Of course, the market could remain choppy even if it moves higher (certainly more so than we saw in 2020).
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Board , which is designed to be summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
The Trend Is Still Your Friend
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
We continue to see the stock market pushing up through the top of the trading ranges that have been entrenched over the
last three to six months.
Where Do Stocks Go From Here?
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Technically, not much has changed over the past month. In our May Market Update, I wrote about how long-term the market is extended and short-term it’s consolidating. That is still the case. However…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
The Breaking Point
By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
As typical of many summer weeks, the market spent the week meandering in a very tight range. The resistance at the highs
remains strong and a barrier to higher prices. As mentioned last week, there will need to be a catalyst for the market to
break through resistance. The Fed meeting next week could be that catalyst and could lead to a breakout to the upside or a
break down into the trading range. At market inflection points, economic news and readings of the Fed thoughts take on
greater importance. We are at such a point….
Rotating Back To Growth?
By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund
I like to see the Tech stocks come back to life as the inflation trade may indeed be transitory. I believe the inflationary pressures we have recently seen are temporary phenomena because the 10-Year Treasury Yield dropped to its lowest level since early March. If the market were concerned with inflation, I believe rates would be trending higher instead of lower…
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Paul Schatz, Rob Bernstein, Ryan Redfern, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Dexter Lyons, Craig Thompson, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model