The editor for a national financial website recently sent me a note asking for a couple words on one of “the greatest myths in investing.” So, I felt like I needed to respond. Never mind that I had been traveling all week and was nearly brain dead when I saw the email. I grabbed a Diet Coke, slammed it down and put on my thinking cap.

Within two minutes it hit me between the eyeballs. Then again, maybe it was the second Diet Coke kicking in. But in any event, I had the “myth” I wanted to bust.


One of the greatest investing misnomers of all time is the notion that no one can “time the market,” so you shouldn’t even try. To which I’d like to emphatically reply, “Hogwash!”

Long-time readers know that I have addressed this topic a time or three in the past. However, this morning I’ve got some new charts to share, so this will hopefully be worth the while of the “dedicated dozen” who read my oftentimes meandering morning market missive every single day. (Oh, and on that note, I was informed this week that I have another dedicated daily reader – so thanks Chris, we’re up to a baker’s dozen now!)

The “time not timing” theme was perpetuated by the mutual fund industry during the secular bull market that ran from 1982 until spring 2000. The idea was completely self-serving as the purveyors of mutual funds wanted investors to put money in their funds and leave it there – forever. Why? To ensure a steadily increasing flow of fee revenue, of course!

The Problem Is…

To be fair, such a plan is a decent idea for those investors who have little time, knowledge, or interest in making their money work hard for them. Buy-and-hold is a fine approach – if (and only if) the investor sticks to it and doesn’t EVER waver – even when things get ugly.

But in reality, this isn’t the way the game works….

Read the rest of the report…


David Moenning

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David Moenning is Mr. Moenning is President of Heritage Capital Research, a privately owned, investment research firm. Heritage focuses on active risk management and an “own the best and ignore the rest” equity selection strategy.

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Positions in stocks mentioned: none

The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM’s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.