NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. “Speaks” is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
All About the Stimulus
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
I’m often asked why I keep a 1-minute chart of the S&P 500 on my screen at all times. Since I don’t trade on a short-term basis, it can be argued that the minute-to-minute movement of the market should be ignored. However, by watching the intraday action closely, the drivers of the market oftentimes become quite clear. Such was the case Tuesday afternoon as the President’s announcement on Twitter that he was ending negotiations for further economic stimulus – stimulus that Fed Chairman Powell had practically begged for earlier in the day – sent stock prices into a freefall. Within 9 minutes of the tweet, the DJIA dove 548 points. And less than 20 minutes after the tweet, the Dow had fallen 625 points. Therefore, it was pretty clear that the market cares about additional economic stimulus – a lot.
Lots Going On Beneath The Surface
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
I guess no one can be surprised that an unexpected tweet from President Trump threw the market for a loop. Certainly, that wasn’t in my forecast nor list of reasons why stocks would fall one more time. For the most part, emotional reversals like Tuesday have been immediately reversed since the bull market began in March. Only a close below Tuesday’s lowest levels would confirm that the decline is in full gear to the bottom I see forming later this month. With that said, there are a number of interesting crosscurrents forming beneath the indices. First and bullishly, the advance/decline of the S&P 500 hit an all-time high this week …
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall: Stick With The Bulls
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Models Board , which is designed to identify the primary trend of the overall stock market.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Uncertainty Rules The Market
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
As we head into October and the coming election, it should be no surprise to see uncertainty rule the market, much like it has done before other elections. The stock market does best when outcomes are generally known. So the fear of the unknown can cause excessive jitters and volatility. We’ll likely see this accelerate over the next few weeks, so again, we’re playing it safe…
Stuck In The Middle With You
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Stock market volatility has increased over the last month but the end result has been a sideways trading range as indicated
by the horizontal arrows in each chart above. Most of the major indices are about the same level they were at the early
part of August. Market volatility is primarily being driven by news headlines regarding the rate of economic recovery,
potential for another economic stimulus bill, the election and most recently by the Covid-19 diagnosis received by President
Trump. With the exception of large-cap and technology stocks, most of the market remains flat to down on a year-to-date
basis. I suspect that volatility will remain elevated as we approach…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
October Could Be Scary
By: Sam and Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
With the election and all things COVID (resurgence, shutdowns, vaccine, etc…), October could be a scary month even without trick or treaters. Remain vigilant and cautious. Opportunity will come out of any weakness but now is not the time to get aggressive….
Pullback Within Long-Term Uptrend
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Long-term the market continues to look bullish. Short-term market internals have improved to a degree that suggests the pullback in stocks may have ended and odds now favor market strength in the near-term.
Follow The Leaders
By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund
I attempt to judge the market’s health by the price and volume action of the current leading stocks, and I am encouraged with what I am seeing. Leading stocks appear to be acting well, and many continue to exhibit signs of accumulation by large institutions as their prices rise on above-average volume. The indexes held lines of support even after President Trump was diagnosed with COVID on Friday. I am pleased to see leading stocks advance in the face of this potentially bad news….
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index: Managers Holding Dry Powder
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
The last week’s exposure reading was 58.25, which suggests managers are keeping some powder dry…
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Paul Schatz, Rob Bernstein, Ryan Redfern, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Dexter Lyons, Craig Thompson, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model