Well, here we go again. Once again, the S&P 500 finished at what amounted to a fractional new all-time high on Thursday. And once again, the venerable index did not produce a convincing break above the top end of the trading range that has been with us for quite some time now. So once again, the question of the day is if the breakout will finally arrive or if traders will produce yet another “fake out” at the top end of the range.

If you find your self skeptical about the market’s ability to break on through to the other side, you are likely in good company. You see, this is definitely not the first go-round on this. And while we can argue about the final tally, we count no fewer than 14 prior breakout attempts since the end of February alone. So, please forgive me if the champagne remains in the rack at this stage of the game.

S&P 500 Index – Daily

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The other question investors may be wondering about is…

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David Moenning

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David Moenning is Mr. Moenning is President of Heritage Capital Research, a privately owned, investment research firm. Heritage focuses on active risk management and an “own the best and ignore the rest” equity selection strategy.

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Positions in stocks mentioned: none


The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM’s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.