This week let’s take a look at current market valuations (high) and what they are telling us about probable 10-year forward returns (low). The stock market has had an outstanding five year run. With that, I believe, many individual investors have misguided expectations. The market is overvalued, over-believed and over-margined yet trend evidence remains positive and Don’t Fight the Fed an important theme. For now.
I share some concluding thoughts below (please note: the piece prints longer than normal due to the number of charts).
Included in this week’s On My Radar:
- Forward Returns
- Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed
- Trade Signals – Zweig Bond Sell Signal Timely, Stock Trend Remains Positive
Founder & CEO CMG
Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG in 1992. He is CEO, Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager at Capital Management Group, Inc. where he manages equity and tactical investment portfolios. He is a frequent speaker and writer on investment strategies and has been featured in various media sources including the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Pensions & Investments Magazine, Investment News, RIA Biz and Smart Money. He has been a guest on CNBC, Wall Street Journal Live, and Bloomberg. Mr. Blumenthal is a frequent speaker at industry conferences (NAPFA, IMCA, Index Universe, Opal Financial Group Indexing & ETF Summit and NAAIM) and is author of CMG’s popular investment research commentary. With 30 years of investment management and industry experience, prior to founding CMG, Mr. Blumenthal worked for Merrill Lynch Institutional, Merrill Lynch Retail and Prudential Securities.
Mr. Blumenthal graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting from Pennsylvania State University. He is married, has three children and is active in his community coaching youth soccer.