Recent Blog Post from NAAIM Member
by Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund Portfolio Manager
As of Thursday, July 30 2015, SPY is up 3.5% vs 1.2% (me) with a Maximum Draw Down (MDD) Loss of 3.7% vs 3.0% (me) since 12/31/14.
I am still 100% in CASH while the market trades sideways with no real direction.
Bottom line: The market (SPY) is stuck in a trading range but it is less than 1% from an all-time-high.
1) The Chinese government basically said that they will do what it takes to not let the Chinese stock market fall below the low on July 8, 2015.
2) It is estimated that China infused almost $500 billion (a free put option) into the China Securities Finance Corp. to support the Chinese stock market.
3) Selling by financial firms is prohibited and short sellers in the Chinese stock market will be put in prison!
4) China is in serious economic trouble and the industrial commodities they have been importing are declining at a fast pace which tells me that we may be in for a global slow down.
5) Saudi Arabia said that it will cut production (to raise prices) after the summer when gasoline demand will drop.
6) If you have a student loan and you do not make enough money, just fill out some forms and the government will defer your student loan (are we not headed down the path like Greece!)
7) When I first got started managing money in 1990, I used rely on “models” which worked very well until they didn’t.
8) No one would ring a bell or tell me the model quit working and I would end up losing a large part of the gain before I came to the conclusion that the model was “broken”.
9) I came to the conclusion that there has to be a better way and no one cared more about my money than I do and I had to find a way to invest that would protect me from the steep declines like 1987, 2000 and 2008.
11) I now consider myself a chart Reader and I use Trend Line Analysis to help me decide how I want to be invested and currently I am not finding a lot of good risk/adjusted chart patterns that I have conviction in.
11) Sooner or later the market will break out of its trading range or maybe we have seen the top and we are headed lower, who knows.
12) Resting is sometimes hard for me to do when I feel like I need to be doing something productive.